Application of Machine Learning in Modeling the Relationship between Catchment Attributes and Instream Water Quality in Data-Scarce Regions

Abstract

This research delves into the efficacy of machine learning models in predicting water quality parameters within a catchment area, focusing on unraveling the significance of individual input variables. In order to manage water quality, it is necessary to determine the relationship between the physical attributes of the catchment, such as geological permeability and hydrologic soil groups, and in-stream water quality parameters. Water quality data were acquired from the Iran Water Resource Management Company (WRMC) through monthly sampling. For statistical analysis, the study utilized 5-year means (1998–2002) of water quality data. A total of 88 final stations were included in the analysis. Using machine learning methods, the paper gives relations for 11 in-stream water quality parameters: Sodium Adsorption Ratio (SAR), Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, SO42−, Cl−, HCO3−, K+, pH, conductivity (EC), and Total Dissolved Solids (TDS). To comprehensively evaluate model performance, the study employs diverse metrics, including Pearson’s Linear Correlation Coefficient (R) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Notably, the Random Forest (RF) model emerges as the standout model across various water parameters. Integrating research outcomes enables targeted strategies for fostering environmental sustainability, contributing to the broader goal of cultivating resilient water ecosystems. As a practical pathway toward achieving a delicate balance between human activities and environmental preservation, this research actively contributes to sustainable water ecosystems.