Predictive Modeling of Flood Frequency Utilizing an Analysis of the Casimcea River in Romania

Abstract

Flooding is a recurrent natural hazard in Romania, causing significant socio-economic impacts. Historical data highlights the severity of floods, particularly the unprecedented flood of 1926. Between 1960 and 2010, Romania experienced over 400 major floods, which significantly impacted its infrastructure and population. Particularly, the floods in 2005 and 2006 affected over 1.5 million people, resulting in 93 deaths and causing damages exceeding EUR 2 billion. In compliance with the Floods Directive, EU member states must assess and map flood hazards and risks. This study aims to develop a frequency analysis to determine discharges as a predictive indicator for different hazard levels: frequent events (10-year return period), medium probability events (100-year return period), and extreme events. The Casimcea catchment in central Dobrogea, drained by the Casimcea River into Lake Tasaul, serves as the study area. The annual maximum discharge data analysis, conducted through frequency analysis and the ELECTRE method, indicates that EV3-Min-Weibull, L-moments, and GEV-Min (L-moments) are the most effective probability density functions (PDFs). To conclude, although a single PDF model cannot be determined for the Casimcea River and its tributaries, it contributes to predictive modeling efforts.